Washington Inventory Up 24.5%: What It Means in Kitsap
Washington housing inventory jumped 24.5% in a year. NWMLS counted 24,965 active listings at the end of September 2026, the most for any September since 2014, while pending sales fell 15.1% and the median price slipped 0.9% to $625,000. That gives fall buyers more choice, but not the same leverage everywhere. Across the NWMLS service area there were 4.44 months of inventory. Kitsap County had 2.58, the tightest of all 27 counties, and Pierce had 3.79.
When a headline says inventory is up nearly 25%, a lot of buyers hear "prices are about to drop and sellers will take anything." That's not what the numbers say, and in Kitsap it's especially not what they say. More homes for sale changes how you should shop. It doesn't change the fact that you're buying one house, in one neighborhood, from one seller. Here's what NWMLS actually reported for September, where the softening really is, why two NWMLS reports can show two different Kitsap numbers, and how I'd use the extra inventory without overplaying your hand.
Key Takeaways
- Supply is up and demand is down across the region. NWMLS reported active listings up 24.5% to 24,965, pending sales down 15.1% to 6,231, and closed sales down 8.9% to 5,623 in September 2026.
- Prices barely moved. The regional median was $625,000, down 0.9% from $630,700. That's a soft market, not a falling one.
- Kitsap is still the tightest county NWMLS covers. It had 2.58 months of inventory, with closed sales up 2.3% and the median up 1.6% to $589,500. But Kitsap pending sales fell 19.2%, so new contracts are slowing here too.
- Pierce is close to balanced. Pierce had 3.79 months of inventory, active listings up 21.6%, and a median up 2.7% to $575,000.
- Condos softened the most. Condo inventory hit 6.29 months against 4.20 for single-family homes, and the condo median fell 4.7%.
- Rates matter more than the inventory headline. Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.40% on October 15, 2026, up from 6.27% a year earlier. Make sure the house works at today's rate.
What NWMLS Actually Reported for September 2026
These are the figures NWMLS published in its September 2026 Market Snapshot and its October 6, 2026 market update. They cover residential and condominium listings across the 27-county NWMLS service area. I'm quoting them as published.
| September 2026 | This year | A year earlier | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active listings | 24,965 | 20,052 | +24.5% |
| New listings | 9,996 | 9,193 | +8.7% |
| Pending sales | 6,231 | 7,335 | -15.1% |
| Closed sales | 5,623 | 6,170 | -8.9% |
| Median sale price | $625,000 | $630,700 | -0.9% |
| Months of inventory | 4.44 | 3.25 |
The headline, in plain English
More homes were listed. Fewer went under contract. Fewer closed. The median barely moved. NWMLS said September had more active listings than any September since 2014, the lowest closed sales for any September since at least 2014, and the highest months of inventory since February 2014.
Demand slowed faster than supply grew
The detail I'd pay most attention to is the ratio of new contracts to new listings. NWMLS reported that for every 100 new listings added in September, buyers went under contract on about 62 homes, down from about 80 a year earlier. That's what builds inventory: not a flood of sellers (new listings rose 8.7%), but buyers taking longer to commit.
Fewer showings per home
NWMLS also tracks showings booked through its showing software. Brokers scheduled 104,936 showings in September, down 12.9% from a year earlier. Each listing that was shown got 4.2 showings on average, down from 5.2. For a seller, that means fewer chances to make a first impression. For a buyer, it means you're less likely to be standing in a crowded hallway at the first open house.
Prices are sticky on the way down
Steven Bourassa, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research, described it in the NWMLS release as "downward stickiness" in home prices: "Prices tend to rise quickly in a strong market but can be slower to fall when conditions weaken, in part because sellers may have the flexibility to wait rather than accept a lower price." That matches what I see. Sellers with low-rate mortgages and no deadline don't have to cut. Sellers who do have a deadline are the ones who negotiate.
Where the Inventory Build-Up Actually Is
Twenty-four of the 27 NWMLS counties had more inventory than a year earlier. But the growth was not even, and the headline number is driven mostly by the big counties around Seattle.
The core Puget Sound counties
NWMLS reported that King, Snohomish and Pierce held 57% of all active listings in the service area. Inventory in those three counties rose 31.2% to 14,294, against a 16.5% increase across the rest of the service area. Snohomish posted the biggest jump of the three, up 44.2%. King was up 31.1% and Pierce 21.6%.
Source: NWMLS Market Snapshot, September 2026. Information and statistics compiled and reported by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
See the numbers
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Snohomish County | +44.2% |
| Thurston County | +33.3% |
| King County | +31.1% |
| NWMLS service area | +24.5% |
| Pierce County | +21.6% |
Months of inventory, county by county
Months of inventory is the cleaner comparison, because it measures supply against the pace of sales. NWMLS calculates it as month-end active listings divided by that month's closed sales. Here's how the counties around us compared in September.
| Area | Months of inventory, September 2026 |
|---|---|
| King County | 4.70 |
| NWMLS service area | 4.44 |
| Snohomish County | 3.85 |
| Pierce County | 3.79 |
| Thurston County | 3.69 |
| Kitsap County | 2.58 |
Source: NWMLS Market Snapshot and market update, September 2026. Information and statistics compiled and reported by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
See the numbers
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| King County | 4.7 |
| NWMLS service area | 4.44 |
| Snohomish County | 3.85 |
| Pierce County | 3.79 |
| Thurston County | 3.69 |
| Kitsap County | 2.58 |
What "balanced" means
A common rule of thumb treats roughly four to six months of inventory as a balanced market, under four as leaning toward sellers, and over six as leaning toward buyers. It's a benchmark, not a switch. A market doesn't cross four months and suddenly make every seller negotiable. By that yardstick, the region as a whole and King County have moved into balanced territory, Pierce is close, and Kitsap is still well below the line.
Condos are a different market
NWMLS reported 6.29 months of inventory for condos against 4.20 for single-family homes. Condo pending sales fell 22.7% and the condo median dropped 4.7% to $455,000, while the single-family median slipped 1.1% to $643,000. In King County, home to 60% of the region's active condo listings, condos had about seven months of inventory and the condo median fell 6.0% to $496,000. If you're shopping condos, you have noticeably more room than someone shopping detached homes.
What Kitsap and Pierce Look Like Up Close
This is the part the regional headline hides. Same month, same reporting system, very different starting points.
Kitsap: tight supply, but contracts are slowing
NWMLS called out Kitsap as one of the counties that bucked the regional slowdown in September. Closed sales rose 2.3%, and the median rose 1.6% to $589,500. At 2.58 months of inventory, Kitsap had the tightest supply in the entire service area, followed by Clallam at 3.21.
But the same release flagged a warning: Kitsap pending sales fell 19.2% from a year earlier. Closed sales are a look back, because most of September's closings were contracts written in August. Pending sales are the earlier signal. A drop that size tells me Kitsap buyers are being more careful, even though supply is still tight. If that continues, the closed numbers will soften later this fall.
Pierce: nearly balanced, and still gaining
Pierce had 3.79 months of inventory and 21.6% more active listings than a year earlier. NWMLS noted that Pierce was the only one of King, Snohomish and Pierce to post a median price gain, up 2.7% to $575,000. More choice and rising prices at the same time sounds like a contradiction, but it isn't. It means buyers have more to pick from, and the well-priced homes are still selling.
Why one county number isn't your number
A waterfront home on Bainbridge Island is not competing with a starter home in West Bremerton, and neither one should be priced from a regional inventory headline. After the county, I look at property type, then price band, then the neighborhood. My September 2026 Kitsap market report breaks the county into NWMLS map areas, and the town pages for Port Orchard, Bremerton, Silverdale and Gig Harbor carry the current area figures.
Two NWMLS Reports, Two Kitsap Numbers
If you read my September market report, you saw Kitsap at 3.0 months of supply and a $595,000 median. Here I'm quoting 2.58 months and $589,500. Both come from NWMLS. They're different publications measuring slightly different things.
The two sources
| September 2026, Kitsap County | NWMLS Market Snapshot | NWMLS Local Market Update, Residential |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $589,500 (+1.6%) | $595,000 (+1.8%) |
| Months of inventory | 2.58 | 3.0 |
| What it covers | Residential and condo combined | The county report's residential figures |
Pierce shows the same pattern: 3.79 months and a $575,000 median in the Snapshot, 3.7 months and $580,000 in the county report.
Which one to trust
Both. Neither is an error. The Snapshot states its method: residential and condominium listings together, with months of inventory equal to month-end active listings divided by that month's closed sales. The county report is a separate NWMLS product with its own basis. The point isn't to pick a winner. It's to compare like with like. If you line up a Snapshot number against a county-report number, you can talk yourself into a trend that isn't there.
Three questions for any housing statistic
Whenever you see a market number, ask:
- What geography does it cover? The NWMLS service area is 27 counties. It isn't the whole state, and it certainly isn't your neighborhood.
- What properties does it include? Houses only, or houses and condos together? With condos at 6.29 months and single-family at 4.20, that choice changes the answer.
- How was it calculated, and for what month? A July number next to a September number isn't a clean comparison. Neither is a monthly figure next to a year-to-date one.
The Number to Be Careful With: Percent of List Price
You'll hear that homes are "still selling at asking." Before you believe it, ask which asking price.
Original list vs current list
Suppose a seller lists at $700,000, cuts to $650,000, and accepts $650,000. That home sold at 100% of list price. It did not sell at 100% of its original asking price. Those are different stories, and in a market where inventory is building, the gap between them is where the real negotiation shows up.
Concessions don't show in the price
A sale price also doesn't tell you what the seller contributed toward closing costs, a rate buydown, or repairs. Two homes can close at the same price and be very different deals. The useful question is what the buyer paid, what the seller paid, and what obligations the buyer took on.
For context, my own buyers have averaged 95.48% of list price, and my sellers 99.18%. Both numbers are about pricing and negotiation on the specific house, not about the market headline.
What Mortgage Rates Do to This Market
Inventory is the headline. Rates are the budget.
The rate, verified
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed average at 7.40% as of October 15, 2026, unchanged from October 8. A year earlier it was 6.27%. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.71%. NWMLS noted that the 30-year average climbed from 6.71% on September 3 to 7.03% on September 24, then to 7.28% in the first week of October. So September's contracts were written against rising rates, which helps explain the drop in pending sales.
Those are national weekly averages. Your rate depends on your credit, down payment, loan type, and the lender's pricing that day.
Buy at the rate you can get now
Here's the planning rule I give every buyer. Make sure the purchase works at the financing you can actually get today. Don't make a future refinance the thing that makes the payment affordable. A lower rate later would be an opportunity, but nobody can promise it, and refinancing has its own costs. If today's payment doesn't fit, waiting is a perfectly reasonable decision.
My September market report runs the payment math at the Kitsap and Pierce medians, and my guide to comparing mortgage rates from local lenders covers what to line up side by side. At these loan sizes, half a point is real money every month.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial or legal advice. Market figures are NWMLS September 2026 statistics as published. Mortgage rates are Freddie Mac PMMS national averages as of October 15, 2026. Confirm your own rate and terms with a licensed lender.
A Fall Buyer's Playbook for More Inventory
More choice helps you only if you use it to make a better decision, not just to ask for a lower price. Here's how I'd shop this fall.
1. Shop your actual market
Not Washington. Not a headline about Seattle. The homes you'd realistically buy, in the places you'd realistically live. Ask your agent to pull the competing inventory in your price band and show you how fast comparable homes are going under contract there. In Kitsap that may still be fast. In parts of Pierce and King it may not.
2. Compare more carefully
Instead of asking "Can I get this house?", ask "How does this house compare with the others I could buy?" Condition, location, layout, insurance cost, upcoming repairs, and the total monthly payment. A cheaper house with a 25-year-old roof isn't cheaper.
3. Look at the listings other buyers passed over
Not every older listing is a bargain. Sometimes it's sitting because the price is wrong, the condition is wrong, or the property has a limitation you can't fix. But a home that's been on the market a while deserves a different conversation than a new listing with three interested buyers. Check the history: original price, current price, reductions, days on market, and any pending sale that fell through. My Washington public records checklist shows where to look before you write an offer.
4. Decide on contingencies before you write
Inspection, financing, appraisal, and anything specific to the property. Don't assume regional inventory growth means every seller will accept every term. But don't give up protections just because someone tells you buyers always have to.
5. Compare the whole offer
| What you're negotiating | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Price | Sets your loan amount and your property tax base |
| Seller credit toward closing costs | Cash you don't have to bring to closing |
| Rate buydown | Lowers the monthly payment, sometimes more than a price cut would |
| Repairs | Fixes problems before you own them |
| Closing timeline | Can matter more to a seller than a few thousand dollars |
The lowest purchase price isn't automatically the best financial outcome. Have your agent and lender price out each version of the deal.
6. Be ready without being rushed
Get your financing reviewed now. Know your comfortable payment, your cash to close, and the conditions that would make you walk away. Preparation should help you make a clear decision. It shouldn't pressure you into a fast one.
What This Means If You're Selling
Most of this post is aimed at buyers, but sellers should read the same numbers.
You're competing with more homes than last fall
With fewer showings per listing and fewer contracts per new listing, the homes that sell are the ones that are priced right and show well on day one. In Kitsap, 2.58 months of inventory still favors sellers. But a 19.2% drop in pending sales says buyers are comparing harder. Price to the recent comparable sales, not to last spring's best sale. My guide to pricing your Kitsap home in 2026 walks through how I set the number.
If your listing is sitting
A home that sat through September's rate climb isn't necessarily overpriced, but it needs a fresh look. My relaunch strategy for an expired listing covers what to change. If you want a number based on the homes buyers are actually comparing against yours, request a home valuation and I'll send a real figure within one business day.
Is Washington a Buyer's Market in Fall 2026?
Not across the board. NWMLS reported 4.44 months of inventory for its 27-county service area in September 2026, which falls in the four-to-six-month range commonly treated as balanced. King County was at 4.70. But Kitsap County was at 2.58, the tightest in the service area, and Pierce was at 3.79. Buyers have more choice than a year ago, but in Kitsap the market still leans toward sellers.
How Much Did Washington Housing Inventory Increase in September 2026?
NWMLS reported 24,965 active listings at the end of September 2026, up 24.5% from 20,052 a year earlier. That was the most for any September since 2014. Twenty-four of the 27 NWMLS counties had more inventory than a year earlier, with Snohomish up 44.2%, King up 31.1%, and Pierce up 21.6%.
Are Home Prices Dropping in Washington in 2026?
Only slightly, and not everywhere. The NWMLS median for September 2026 was $625,000, down 0.9% from a year earlier, and NWMLS said its median has been flat or below the prior year every month in 2026. In Kitsap County the median rose 1.6% to $589,500, and in Pierce County it rose 2.7% to $575,000. Condos fell the most, with the regional condo median down 4.7%.
Why Do NWMLS Reports Show Different Months of Inventory for Kitsap County?
NWMLS publishes more than one report. Its September 2026 Market Snapshot, which combines residential and condo listings and divides month-end active listings by that month's closed sales, showed 2.58 months for Kitsap. Its county Local Market Update showed 3.0 months. Both are NWMLS figures on different bases. Compare numbers from the same report, the same property type, and the same month.
Final Thoughts
September's numbers support a simple conclusion. Across the region, buyers have more homes to choose from, contracts are slower, and prices are holding roughly flat. That's a better market for buyers than a year ago. It's not a fire sale, and in Kitsap it's still a tight market by any measure NWMLS publishes. The extra inventory is a reason to compare more, ask better questions, read the listing history, and protect yourself. It isn't a reason to throw out a low offer and see what sticks. You're not buying a regional average. You're buying one house, and the numbers that matter most are the ones about that house.
Want to know what this means for your search or your sale?
I'll pull the competing inventory and the recent comparable sales for your neighborhood and price range, and tell you where the leverage actually is. Get in touch here, or call (360) 777-7212.
Buying? Search homes for sale. Selling? Get a real valuation on your home.
